Kosovo’s independence: looking ahead

The country is not yet independent; it will depend on foreign aid and European Union (EU) tutelage for years. Independence will come with effective foreign aid management and Kosovo’s integration in international organizations.

The world has a new country: Kosovo. The independence of this small Balkan territory with only two million, mostly young and unemployed, inhabitants was auto-proclaimed on the 17th of February. Many applaud the decision and will recognize the new country (the United States and 20 EU members at least) and others see it as a dreadful breach of international law and a negative precedent for countries with independence-claiming minorities (Spain, Georgia, Romania, China, Russia).

The legal damage has been done and the decision taken. Full stop. It is too late to go back in time. We could discuss how the international community managed to leave a region the size of Connecticut (1/3 of Belgium) in economic and political limbo during nine years, after NATO decided to bring to an end Milosevic’s abuses. We could also spend time thinking how Serbia lost the moral authority to govern in an ethnically Albanian region despite having the legal one. I believe it is now time to look ahead and find solutions to the most pressing issues: the economy and Kosovo’s status in the Balkan region, in the EU and internationally.

First things first, Kosovo’s people and its economy. Imagine Mr. Thacis’s face of embarrassment, Kosovo’s Prime Minister, when during the announcement of the independence plan a series of power cuts took place. Kosovars have endured power cuts, widespread poverty and lack of opportunities for years. The newly created country depends on Serbia’s power supply and food. Kosovo has one of the youngest populations with the highest fertility rate in the world. “Good ground for strong and motivated labor”, an analyst would say. However, around 40 out of 100 active Kosovars are unemployed. Donors have invested in social infrastructure (hospitals and schools) during the last decade, establishing minimum standards. This is good news.

Today, annual GDP per capita is only EUR1700 ($2500), twelve times smaller than the United States. Kosovars are poor and dependent on help. Money is probably not going to be the issue at stake; Kosovo has benefited from more than EUR1.5 billion ($2.2 billion) since 1999 from EU assistance. The United States might have prepared a good check to help them too, Kosovo is a an excellent forum to portray American goodness in this trouble times of American foreign policy. This dependency on aid, however, can curtail any hope of real independence. For once, Kosovo should be less of an experiment of international aid and more of a coordinated initiative to find the economic and regional advantage of this piece of land and exploit it. The EU should balance budget expenditure in border control and judiciary reform (areas giving juicy military equipment contracts back to EU countries) with social and structural reform expenditure.

Had the EU allocated its assistance budget (1999-today) to Kosovo directly per household, each Kosovar household would have received EUR 5000 (twice today’s annual GDP per capita!)

As regards the status of Kosovo in the EU and internationally, Kosovo should become a member of the EU, the UN, NATO and as many international coalitions as possible. This will bring stability and badly needed investments. Russia’s stubbornness in using its veto to prevent Kosovo’s international recognition is at best, childish. The argument that Kosovo’s independence is a bad precedent for other countries with minorities is opportunistic and dangerous. Each context and each minority is different; each country with minorities treats them differently. Basque nationalists using this for their own political agenda dishonors the generous system of power decentralization that has been put in place in Spain during the last three decades and reflects that independence-supporters do not listen to all Basques, only those supporting their goals. The Russian Federation and other countries should learn what happens when you squeeze your minorities too much. This is time for politicians and policymakers to think how to deal with multi-ethnic, multi-identity states.

A note for Serbia: accepting the loss of 15% of its territory might take time but, again, it is time to look ahead. Serbia’s Soviet-style stubbornness is retrograde and counterproductive. Withdrawing Serbian diplomats from the few embassies that Serbia has around the world is a mistake. The country needs friends regionally and internationally. Those friends are in Brussels too. The Serbian political class should not feel rage or revenge, they should be relieved and driven to achieve EU membership and prosperity. Bluntly put, one less national minority is one less problem to divide the national interest with.

When the past does not help to solve current dilemmas, only looking at the future and thinking that practical solutions are possible can help. Kosovo needs that.